A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
