Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
